Monday, July 19, 2010 Publisher: Íslandsbanki Research - greining@islandsbanki.is - Resp.Editor: Ingólfur Bender

Fitch: Could supreme court verdict hurt sovereign rating?
The recent verdict of Iceland's supreme court that certain foreign-denominated loans were unlawful, is likely to negatively impact the country's financial stability, public finances and the timing of relaxation of currency controls. This was the assessment of Paul Rawkins, a senior director at Fitch Ratings in London, in an interview on Bloomberg this morning. In his estimation, the verdict is likely to delay economic recovery in Iceland and negatively affect its sovereign rating. His statements are hardly surprising, given the increased economic uncertainty in the wake of this verdict. Up until this morning, Fitch has had little to say about Iceland since lowering its sovereign rating for Iceland's foreign currency obligations below investment level, i.e. to BB+, following the decision by the President of Iceland to refer the Icesave agreement to a referendum at the beginning of January.

We consider a downgrade unlikely
Despite Rawkins statements this morning, Research does not expect the agency to downgrade Iceland's sovereign rating at this time, despite the fact that Fitch has it on negative outlook. In fact, many positive advances have been made in Iceland since the agency announced its sovereign downgrade. The country's IIP has improved, access to foreign financing has increased, inflation has decreased and the ISK has strengthened. We regard a further downgrade by Fitch as unlikely, unless a major reversal were to occur in economic progress and the reconstruction programme currently followed by the government and IMF.  


Cod catch quota increased
The total allowable catch (TAC) for cod will be 160 thousand tonnes for the next fishing year commencing on 1 September this year, or 10 thousand tonnes more than for the current fishing year. The Minister of Fisheries and Agriculture issued a Regulation to this effect on Friday last week, following the proposal of the Marine Research Institute (MRI). The Regulation sets TACs for the 2010/11 fishing year for all main commercial stocks in Iceland's fisheries jurisdiction. While the Regulation reflects MRI's proposals for the most part, as usual there are some exceptions. 

During the first five months of this year the value of exported marine products was ISK 87.3 billion (bn) or around 38% of the total value of Iceland's exports for the period. As cod is the most important species, comprising 43% of total catch value of Icelandic vessels in Q1 2010, the TAC increase is a major boost. 

While for decades TACs and cod catches all too often exceeded MRI¿s advice, the adoption of a catch rule and specific utilisation strategy in recent years has significantly improved the situation. The same is not true, however, for many other species, where catches remain substantially more than MRI advises. For example, the Minister's decision sets the TAC for haddock for the coming fishing year at 50 thousand tonnes, while MRI proposed a limit of 45 thousand tonnes. The TACs for pollock, Greenland halibut and wolffish, for instance, are 50 thousand, 13 thousand and 12 thousand tonnes respectively, while the MRI recommendations were for TACs of 40 thousand, 5 thousand and 8.5 thousand tonnes respectively. 



Few statistics published this week
Few statistics are scheduled for publication this week, with the exception of new labour market figures. On Wednesday, Statistics Iceland (SI) will announce the wage index for June. In May the wage index rose by 0.2% MoM and has increased by 4.0% during the past 12 months. During the same period the CPI has risen 7.5%, resulting in a drop of 3.3% in the purchasing power of wages during this period. Real wages have, in fact, shrunk steadily since the beginning of 2008 due to high inflation, while wage increases have been restrained by growing unemployment and tougher times in the private sector. The outlook is for a better balance between wage and price level developments in coming quarters, with the downward slide in real wages soon bottoming out, although there is likely some way to go yet before increases appear once more.

Labour market in Q2 2010
SI will also publish the results of its labour force survey for Q2 2010 in its publication Hagtíðindi on Wednesday. The impact of the recession was clearly visible in the Q1 survey: the participation rate was lower, working hours shorter, part-time work more common and unemployment higher than has generally been the case in Iceland - all well-known symptoms of economic downturns like the one gripping Iceland since the banks' collapse. Unemployment averaged 7.6% during the quarter, which is somewhat higher than the 7.1% of Q1 2009, and a far cry from the 2.3% of Q1 2008. The increase was especially striking in the number unemployed for 6 months or longer, who comprised around 40% of total unemployed. Unemployment as reported in SI's labour force survey generally increases QoQ in Q2, and a similar outcome this year would be no surprise. In Q2 2009, unemployment rose by two full percentage points QoQ from 7.1% to 9.1%.

In tandem with the wage index on Wednesday, SI will publish the payment smoothing index which will apply in August; this index reflects developments in the wage index and unemployment level. In July the payment smoothing index rose by 0.9% MoM, due to lower unemployment in May 2010 than in May of the previous year. The payment smoothing index was 97.6, and debt service for persons whose housing mortgages are governed by it was therefore similar to its level at the beginning of 2009.

Date: Subject: Most recent release: Source:
Jul.21.10 Building cost index for August 2010 May.21.10 Statistics Iceland
Jul.21.10 Index for mortgage payment adjustment in August 2010 Jun.21.10 Statistics Iceland
Jul.21.10 Monthly wage index in June 2010 Jun.21.10 Statistics Iceland
Jul.21.10 Labour market statistics, 2nd quarter 2010 Apr.21.10 Statistics Iceland
Jul.21.10 Auction Treasury Notes Jul.12.10 Gov. Debt Management


News
OMX ICEX, 7/16/2010
Category Volume
Bonds 42
Equities 5,008
Total 5,050
Icelandic Bonds, 7/16/2010
ID Vol. Yield Day.ch.
HFF150914 216 3.10% 4
HFF150224 882 3.52% -3
HFF150434 986 3.49% -4
HFF150644 380 3.45% -3
RIKB 10 1210 9 3.25% -1
RIKB 11 0722 75 4.35% -7
RIKB 13 0517 14 4.34% 2
RIKB 19 0226 476 6.00% -5
RIKB 25 0612 300 6.14% -4
REIBOR Market, 7/16/2010
Term REIBID REIBOR
O/N 6.50% 7.00%
SW 6.50% 7.00%
1M 7.10% 7.50%
3M 6.80% 7.05%
6M 6.35% 6.70%
12M 6.10% 6.35%
Exchange Rates, 7/16/2010
  pr.ISK 3m.Libor 3m.fwd.
USD 122.29 0.52% 2.0
GBP 186.82 0.74% 2.9
JPY 1.40 0.24% 0.0
EUR 158.50 0.81% 2.4
Vt. ISK 213.96 0.84% 3.2
Currency Crosses, 7/19/2010
  EUR GBP USD
GBP 0.848    
USD 1.296 1.528  
CHF 1.363 1.606 1.051
JPY 112.819 132.977 87.045
NOK 8.148 9.604 6.286
SEK 9.526 11.228 7.350
Icelandic Equities, 7/16/2010
ID Vol. Yield Day.ch.
OSSR 40 184.50 -0.27%
MARL 2 90.10 0.00%
FO-EIK 0 81.50 0.00%
ICEAIR 0 3.50 0.00%
FO-AIR 0 117.00 0.00%
Volume in ISK m.
This report is provided for information purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell any security. All views and analyses are those of Islandsbanki Research at the time of writing, and can change at any time without notice. Neither Islandsbanki nor its personnel can be held responsible for transactions carried out based on the information and opinions expressed here. Readers are urged to seek expert advice when taking decisions on market investments.

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